Când este vorba de provocările pe care America le va avea de înfruntat în următoarele decenii (dincolo de lupta globală împotriva terorismului și securitatea energetică), majoritatea analiștilor americani au o singură problemă de rezolvat care se cheamă containing China.
Containment a fost strategia luptei împotriva răspândirii comunismului, iar acum America speră să folosească același model pentru a gestiona problema chineză. Metoda cuprinde, printre altele, asigurarea superiorității navale (americanii au învățat din istorie că cine controlează mările controlează lumea – Imperiul Roman, Imperiul Britanic), baze militare în țările din jur, parteneriate strategice și alianțe cu celelalte țări din zonă, totul pentru a crea un context în care “inamicul” va fi descurajat să schimbe status quo-ul.
Dincolo de faptul că acest model a funcționat în timpul Războiului Rece, americanii îl aplică acum în Asia dintr-un motiv care le stârnește îngrijorare: nu se știe cum va evolua China. Mai precis, întrebarea este: “Devenind mai puternică, va deveni China mai agresivă și va încerca o schimbare a balanţei de putere din Asia de Sud-Est?”
Poate va încerca să rezolve problema Taiwanului, poate va deveni mai antagonică față de Japonia și alți vecini din jur sau poate va încerca – prin mijloace hard power – subminarea influenței americane în Pacific.
Deocamdată, lumile sunt diferite. SUA trăieşte într-o lume unipolară în care există o singură putere globală, iar China îşi asumă (la fel ca şi Rusia) o lume multipolară unde co-există mai multe puteri regionale.
Am făcut acestă introducere pentru că am citit un eseu (pdf) – pe care îl voi rezuma în continuare – al unui general chinez despre provocările pe care le așteptă China în următoarele decenii, un articol care face puţină lumină în jurul rolului pe care China doreşte să şi-l asume în lume. Pe scurt, din perspectiva chineză, cum arată “problema americană”?
Starea de fapt
The position of U.S. and western forces is on the decline. The United States is bogged down in “two wars and one crisis,” Europe is being dragged down by the debt crisis, and Japan’s political situation has seen “seven Prime Ministers in seven years,” and its economy is in the doldrums.
The overall strength of emerging powers is getting stronger. Russia’s big power revival is accelerating, while the economies of India, Brazil, and others are developing quickly. Emerging powers are increasing their contributions to the global economy and their overall influence is increasing.
In the Cold War, the focus of strategic competition was Europe. After the Cold War, the Middle East became the focus of strategic competition. At present, the focus of global competition has shifted to the Asia-Pacific.
Ce e de făcut?
One should take a long-term perspective in viewing the development of relations between great powers, in particular, there must be strategic foresight for the development of Sino-U.S. relations. If we only stare at the issues at the forefront over the next three to five years, points of disagreement will exceed the points we have in common; if we focus on the next one or two decades, the points we have in common may exceed our points of disagreement; if our eyes can see a little further, we may find even more things in common.
After the end of the Cold War, each great power actively carried out a series of strategic adjustments based on the ebb and flow of international balance of power and changes to its security threats.
Contradicţii americane
The contradiction between its objectives being too big and its abilities insufficient. U.S. power is on the decline and leading the Asia-Pacific is beyond its grasp.
Second, the contradiction between “advancing east” and “minding the west”.
Third, the contradiction between Asia-Pacific countries’ dependence on the United States and their vigilance against it. Each country not only hopes to “rely on the United States to make themselves strong,” but also worries about the U.S. interfering in their internal politics.
Strategia Chinei este dezvoltată în două direcţii care cuprind atât oportunităţi, cât şi provocări:
Four No Changes
– the keynote of the times has not changed, it remains peace and development
– the international environment of our economic development has not changed, the balance of international forces continues to transform in a direction that is conducive to maintaining world peace;
– the overall controllable state of our peripheral security environment has not changed
– our advantageous position in the strategic interaction with other great powers has not changed.
Problems în Five Aspects
– to be alert to and guard against the Western strategy of penetration and subversion. Western countries attempt to use multiple channels, including military deployments, political transformation, economic control, and cultural penetration, to bring the relevant regional countries into a global system for [the West’s] benefit.
– to be alert to and guard against Japanese political rightism taking the leading position. Presently, the trend of the whole of Japanese politics moving to the right is rather clear, its military strategy is changing from “purely self-defense” to a more externally-oriented and offensive type; if any of these developments continue, they will not only have a major effect on the security situation of East Asia, but also on the entire Asia-Pacific Region.
– to be alert to and guard against foreign great powers getting involved in the South China Sea issue. We need to make the relevant countries understand that we have the strategic resolve to use the necessary means to defend [our] sovereignty, that we have the firm will to defend national interests from being violated.
– to be alert to and guard against the spread of “New Interventionism” (a type of neocolonialism that waves the banner of “human rights”)
– to be alert to and guard against the rise of non-traditional security factors (cyberwar). In the information era, seizing and maintaining superiority in cyberspace is more important than seizing command of the sea and command of the air were in World War II.
Citat anecdotic
The West’s so-called “internet freedom” actually is a type of cyber-hegemony.
